Carlos M. Carvalho, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Statistics


Google Scholar Citations
   Published work
  • Hahn, P.R., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Mukherjee (2013) Partial Factor Modeling: Predictor Dependent Shrinkage for Linear Regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association

  • Lopes, H.F. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2013) Online Bayesian Learning in Dynamic Models: An illustrative Introduction to Particle Methods. In Hierarchical Models and Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

  • Ho, J., Park, Y., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Ghosh, J. (2013) DYNA-CARE: Dynamic Cardiac Arrest Risk Estimation." Journal of Machine Learning Research, WC&P (AIStats)
  • Ho, J., Park, Y., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Ghosh, J. (2013) DYNACARE-OP: Dynamic Cardiac Arrest Risk Estimation Incorporating Ordinal Features." ICML 2013, Healthcare Workshop
  • Hahn, P.R., Scott, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2012) A Sparse Factor-Analytic Probit Model for Congressional Voting Patterns. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C, 61

  • Lopes, H.F, Polson, N.G. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2012) Bayesian Statistics with a Smile: a Resampling-Sampling Perspective. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics.

  • Lopes, H.F, Carvalho, Carlos M., Johannes, M. and Polson, N.G. (2011) Particle Learning for Sequential Bayesian Computation. Bayesian Statistics 9.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Lopes, H.F and Aguilar, O. (2011) Dynamic Stock Selection Strategies: a Structured Factor Model Framework. Bayesian Statistics 9.

  • Wang, H., Reeson, C. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2011) Dynamic Financial Index Models: Modeling Conditional Dependencies via Graphs. Bayesian Analysis 6 .

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Lopes, H.F., Polson, N.G. and Taddy, M.(2010) Particle Learning for General Mixtures. Bayesian Analysis, 5.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Polson, N.G. and Scott, J.G. (2010) The Horseshoe Estimator for Sparse Signals. Biometrika, 97, 465-480.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Johannes, M., Lopes, H.F and Polson, N.G. (2010) Particle Learning and Smoothing. Statistical Science, 25(1), 88-106.

  • Wang, H. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2010) Simulation of Hyper-Inverse Wishart Distributions for Non-decomposable Graphs. Electronic Journal of Statistics.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and Rickershauser, J.(2010) Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Measure of Information Flow in Political Campaigns. Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, .

  • Quintana, J.M., Carvalho, Carlos M. and Scott, J.G.(2010) Futures Markets, Bayesian Forecasting and Risk Modeling. Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, .

  • Lucas, J., Carvalho, Carlos M., Merl, D. and West, M.(2010) In-Vitro to In-Vivo Factor Profiling in Expression Genomics. Bayesian Modeling in Bioinformatics.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and Scott, J.G. (2009) Objective Bayesian Model Selection in Gaussian Graphical Models. Biometrika, 96, 1-16.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Polson, N. and Scott, J.G. (2009) Handling Sparsity via the Horseshoe. Journal of Machine Learning Research, W&CP 5 (AIStats).

  • Chang, J., Carvalho, Carlos M., Mori, S., Bild, A., Gatza, M., Wang, Q., Lucas, J., Potti, A., Febbo, P., West, M. and Nevins, J. (2009) A Genomic Strategy to Elucidate Modules of Oncogenic Pathway Signaling Networks Molecular Cell 34, 104114

  • Lucas, J.,Carvalho, Carlos M. and West, M. (2009) A Bayesian Analysis Strategy for Cross-study Translation of Gene Expression Biomarkers. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, 8(1).

  • Lucas, J.,Carvalho, Carlos M., Chen, J., Chi, J. and West, M.(2009) Cross-study Projections of Genomic Biomarkers: An Evaluation in Cancer Genomics. PLoS One, 4 (2).

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Chang, J., Lucas, J., Wang, Q., Nevins, J. and West, M. (2008) High-dimensional Sparse Factor Modelling: Applications in Gene Expression Genomics. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103 (4), 14381456 .

  • Rajaratnam, B., Massam, H. and Carvalho, Carlos M., (2008) Flexible Covariance Estimation in Graphical Gaussian Models. Annals of Statistics 36(6), 2818-2849 .

  • Scott, J.G. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2008) Feature-Inclusion Stochastic Search for Gaussian Graphical Models. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 17, 790-808.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Massam, H. and West, M. (2007)Simulation of Hyper Inverse-Wishart Distributions in Graphical Models. Biometrika 94, 647-659.

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and West, M. (2007)Dynamic Matrix-Variate Graphical Models. Bayesian Analysis 2, 69-98

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and West, M. (2007)Dynamic Matrix-Variate Graphical Models - A synopsis. Bayesian Statistics 8, 585-590

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. and Lopes, H.F. (2007) Simulation-based Sequential Analysis of Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility Models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 51, 4526-4542.

  • Lopes, H.F. and Carvalho, Carlos M. (2007)Factor Stochastic Volatility with Time-varying Loadings and Markov Switching Regimes. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 137, 3082-3091.

  • Lucas,J.,Carvalho, C.M., Wang, Q., Bild, A., Nevins, J.R. and West, M. (2006)Sparse Statistical Modelling in Gene Expression Genomics. In Bayesian Inference for Gene Expression and Proteomics.

  • Jones,B., Carvalho,C.M., Dobra,A., Hans,C., Carter,C. and West,M. (2005)Experiments in Stochastic Computation for High-dimensional Graphical Models. Statistical Science, 20, 388-400


  •    Working papers and others
  • Windle, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2013) Forecasting High-Dimensional, Time Varying Covariance Matrices for Portfolio Selection (Working Paper)

  • Hahn, P.R. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2013) Decoupled Shrinkage and Selection in Linear Models (Work in progress)

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Lopes, H. and McCulloch, R. (2013) On the Long Run Volatility of Stocks. (Work in progress)

  • Carvalho, Carlos M., Daniel, K. and Titman, S. (2013) Testing Factor Asset Pricing Models. (Work in progress)

  • Bianchi, D. and Carvalho, Carlos M.(2013)Risk Assessment in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Hurts. (Working paper)

  • Rickershauser, J. and Carvalho, Carlos M. and (2008) Developing and Testing Theories of the Causes of War: Assessing Key Events Leading to the Iraq War Using Prediction Markets. (submitted for publication)

  • Carvalho, Carlos M. (2007) Smoothing the Transition. Bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis 14 (4).

  • Wang, Q., Carvalho, Carlos M., Lucas, J. and West, M. (2007) BFRM: Bayesian Factor Regression Modelling. Bulletin of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis 14 (2).


  •    Ph.D. Dissertation


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